– By Sairam Bollapragada and Rajesh Mohandas
In today’s hyper-connected world which is driven by hyper-dependent technology landscape, black swan effects are necessarily increasing as a result of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity in the given globalization scenario. There is recognition that the demand (crisis?) in food security is only going up. Trust is becoming more a mandate than an option, especially for this sector that focus on “Farm to Fork” while already battling Drought, Emerging crop diseases, Pest resistance to chemicals and genetic traits, Phosphorous mines depleting, Salty soils, Fertilizer dependence and growing influence of anti-science forces.
A bigger threat faced by this $5 trillion sector representing 15% of global consumer spend, 40% employment and 30% greenhouse emission, is the “agro-terrorism” too. In the United States alone, crop and forest production losses from invasive insects and pathogens have been estimated at almost US$40 billion per year.
Hence the need for a “TRUST PROTOCOL” and a ledger of everything to establish transparency and traceability to the sources assisted by cognitive systems, to address the ever increasing concern of providing necessary quality and safe nutrition for a growing population. To accomplish the growing need, the food production should increase by 70% from the current levels (at near zero wastage) and one potential solution to the rescue could be the intelligence driven Blockchain (Cognitive Blockchain?)
This kind of Blockchain can create techniques for upfront detection of malicious agents in the autonomous AI dominated supply chain. It brings in “Consensus” and “Persistent” algorithms rendering multi-agent Cognitive Connected Solutions into an evolving self-organized structure capable to overcome Data Oligopoly. Let us look at few sample applications:
- Transparency related issue resolution:
- Fund allocation by Government or private agencies to farmers in developing nations do not reach the intended farmers in time due to various reasons and leads to farmer’s bad debts. Usage of Blockchain based digital tokens as currency can come to the rescue of this scenario where bitcoin-enabled farmers can transact for fertilizers, seeds, and other necessities with least probabilities of being misused or imitated, ensuring the right usage of allocated funds creating maximum needed impact. Furthermore the AI Algorithms can add predictive features to enable the agencies to take proactive measures and plan for the future budgetary allocations.
- The above can also be used to stall the misuse of land documents by middleman or land-sharks standing in for the farmers. Blockchain can help create immutable land titles to prove the ownership and insure the farmers from the widespread corruption through the trust and transparency driven by Blockchain. The cognitive techniques can further aid in fighting fraud detection, money laundering, counterfeit currency, etc.
- Brokerage Avoidance:
High insurance premiums paid by farmers is a wide known issue, where majority of the play is by the middlemen. Cognitive Blockchain solutions, can help eliminate the middlemen and add the required intelligence where the CPQ algorithms will help farmers configure the insurance plans and opt the lowest premium for their crop produce, avoiding the brokerage/processing fee involved ensuring their premiums are actually paid in time.
In addition, such solutions will help insurance companies to better understand a farmer’s risk profile by predictive modeling, estimated profitability bettering their credit history and making them more creditworthy.
- Supply Chain to Demand Chain:
With AI, ML and analytics, the behavior of both the buyer and seller is seeing a change. Blockchain makes it even more interesting with Cognitive demand forecasting. As the appetite to handle more data goes up, the number of input sources and players participating in the demand forecasting will increase. With intelligent Blockchain solutions, one can not only keep track of the transactions and contractual obligations with suppliers and other stakeholders, but also gain visibility into the demand-supply scenarios. The farmers can run queuing algorithms and thus proactively route the supply to predictively meet the right demand in right time, making the shift to the supply chain as demand chain.
- The Food Security factor:
Forbes reports that a study conducted at WALLMART that took 6 days and 18+ hours to trace the source of a Mango carton, was completed in less than 3 seconds with Blockchain. Described by the Economist as “the trust machine”, blockchains can provide supply chain transparency and data integrity, allowing a visible assurance of authenticity and assist fighting food fraud, especially, the organic food fraudulent labeling that is becoming prevalent today.
If leveraged effectively, Cognitive Blockchain can play a very critical role in accomplishing the target of safe, quality nutrition needs of 9.6 billion population by 2050!!