Real Time Supply Chain Analytics

Real Time Supply Chain Analytics

By Sairam Bollapragada & Rajesh Mohandas

Supply chain managers have seen increasing challenges to create, and keep, efficient and effective supply chain methods, Customer Service, Operating Cost Control, Planning and Risk Management, Inventory Control, GTM Speed, Supplier / Partner relationship management, Green Supply Chain and Talent (Resources) are a few burring issues that are on the top of the charts that burn the midnight oil. A survey by McKinsey says the companies who have already engaged in leveraging Digital Technologies have managed key trade-offs on barriers to better performance : raising risk, lack of collaboration and low CEO involvement.

The fall of this decade has seen major shift in the supply demand dynamics, the traditional supply chain solutions are not equipped to handle complex scenarios due to lack of visibility. There is a competitive demand for real-time responsiveness which can be addressed by the combination of Data Science and Emerging Technologies connecting customer service with Social and Mobile platforms that are cloud enabled on one hand and strengthening visibility into operations with IOT based real-time analytics. The icing on the cake is emergence of machine learning which is all set to address the tactical challenges and give signature ready recommendations for decision makers to gain maximum mileage.

Supply chain management will gradually be disrupted by the rising adoption of IoT and advanced analytics.  The challenge faced by the supply chain practitioners and players is inability to take advantage of technology to the fullest extent while they are trying to simultaneously integrate their supply chain systems across a much wider range of information sources due to lack of 360 degree view of both business and customer.

  1. Strategic Planning: The very first component of the supply chain, Strategic Planning, comprises of Strategic supply design and Strategic sourcing. Here real time analytics can be used for Supply Chain alert monitoring and the insights will flow into Long term planning, Bid Management, Contract management, Catalogue management and Source determination, real time information can be accessed by decision makers that are geographically dispersed to take collaborative decision on a cloud enabled mobile application. 
  2. Demand Planning: The Next component of the supply-chain value stream is Demand Planning the three crucial capabilities here are Forecasting, Promotions and Demand Consensus. Advanced real-time analytics help with Macro calculations and planning bill of materials leading to collaborative demand planning and characteristic based forecasting.
  3.  Supply Planning: The heartbeat for any supply chain is the supply planning which comprises of capabilities like Safety stock planning, supply network and outsourcing decisions, Distribution planning, Customer and Supplier collaboration. The best component in the value chain where Emerging technologies can be used with the fullest potential is here, the power of cloud enabled CRM systems and Communities connecting the enterprise giving a 360 degree view to the entire ecosystem including the suppliers, customers, partners and the enterprise following with the power of advanced analytics and big data enabled deep learning algorithms come handy. Some examples where one can leverage advanced real-time analytics are in the area of multi-level supply demand matching, whereas the artificial intelligence neural network algorithms can be plugged into supply network planning.

Procurement, Warehousing and Order Fulfilments are three equally crucial parts of the supply chain operations that are interlinked and often become bottleneck in the supply chain due to lack of visibility. In a connected supply chain environment the intelligent algorithms need to be plugged in here such that all three areas are interconnected and all repetitive processes can be automated through RPA, what with NLP loaded Analytics providing intelligence and insight into the process.

4. Transportation: The last component of the value chain is Transportation. Often the biggest complaint from the players of supply chain is “Visibility to the Tail”. This is already being accomplished by real time analytics, bringing in a predictive model that combines features like load consolidation, intelligent route optimization, carrier selection and shipment trending which are few elements of the Transport planning while the Transport execution can feed in data from the shipping interfaces capable of distance determination services. The last inputs come from the freight-costing component that strengthens the predictive model and the machine learning algorithm continuously churns the data and gives real-time insights for both strategists and operations.

Hence, Analytics working in tandem with Cloud, Mobility, and AI, can play a very critical role to bring in great value add to the Real Time Supply Chain scenarios for all those who embrace and leverage. This is even more critical with markets moving towards a more C2C value chain where the customer experience and expectations are fast changing. Retailers, Warehouses, Suppliers, Logistics, and all the agents in the Supply Chain have to work in an orchestrated mode need to be on their toes to remain competitive and relevant to the market expectations.

VUCA in Digital Manufacturing

By Sairam Bollapragada Sairam & Rajesh Mohandas

In our first part of this series Digital in a VUCA World we walked thru various facets of Digital being impacted, the first paper was domain agnostic and we will today focus on the impact of VUCA on DIGITAL MANUFACTURING!

 

Manufacturing roughly contributes to 1/3rd of the global GDP as per the world bank figures and approximately 10% of the global workforce is directly employed by manufacturing companies. The “Multiplier Effect” brings in nearly 37% of the entire global workforce is indirectly connected with manufacturing sector as per the Forbes. Compared to that of discrete manufacturing there is more technology penetration and today the emergence of Digital and Adaptive manufacturing has clearly redefined this prone-to-be disrupted sector, adding predictability, efficiency, effectiveness and above all cost optimization with improved productivity as challenges.

 

VUCA conflates four distinct types of challenges that demand four distinct types of responses; the need of the hour for companies during an economic downturn is business developers and not problem solvers or better a combination of the two.

 

Along with VUCA came the concept of working world 4.0. Derived from industry 4.0, the fourth industrial revolution, it names its immense and rapidly spreading impacts on many areas of work and life. It changes the way we communicate, get and read information and prepare decisions. The special feature of Industry 4.0 is networked manufacturing, i.e. the further development of digitisation through emerging technologies…

 

ART OF THE POSSIBLE in the VUCA world for manufacturing sectors leveraging Digital …

 

Volatility: The Manufacturers are increasingly becoming aware of the fact that to alter their manufacturing strategies face the raising volatility. One has to firstly understand the volatility exposure and assess how agile are internal business processes, the business operations and at least 75% knowledge about the customers customer in all three B2B, B2C and C2C markets.

 

Manufacturers are under constant pressure of continuously improving QPM, especially in the fluctuating market demand irrespective of the magnitude. One bad product and the digital reach being so large and quick, it can dent your credibility.

 

Big Data with Predictive analytics and bots leveraging machine-learning algorithms will bring in mechanisms to tackle volatility and hence automate a large chunk of the manufacturing process.

 

Uncertainty: The manufacturing sector has lived thru multiple uncertain eras and has indeed mastered the art of change management, in the digital world the same can be replicated with “USE-PREPARE-FOCUS-FIND” cycle

 

  • USE : use Data: Knowledge – Process – Technology, to arrive at strong data analytics platforms to predict and handle uncertainty. Data lakes can help drive multiple inferences and leverage on historical information. The shift to Virtual prototyping, IoT based surface modelling QAC, Sheet metal design, CAPP, AR based marketing, process simulation, are all areas that need to be understood well.

 

  • PREPARE: be well prepared to tackle situations raising out of events unknown, with digital technology like cognitive computing, neural networks, artificial intelligence algorithms etc. to speed up effective decision making capabilities with a “First – to – Market” objective. Prepare well to use tools like SAMCEF, NASTRAN, ABAQUS (to name a few), etc. for FEA, embedded M2M based information analytics, Connected Device Platforms (CDP), AEP, etc. You need to move fast and as much to Intelligent Manufacturing.

 

  • FOCUS: The market is shifting towards customer specific demand fulfilment, hence analytics, cognitive computing and plethora of such tools available can help you focus on very specialized “M2C – Manufacturer to Customer” markets – hence the agility and reach. Continuously focus to improve the PLM, from conception to service and disposal.
  • FIND: the digital marketing and media provides platforms for very fast feedback which can be leveraged catalytically to improve the products and build variants, thus maximizing footprint.

 

Complexity: Looking the way Digital Manufacturing is being challenged, the four influencing factors are:

  1. optimized resource usage,
  2. shortened lead times,
  3. personalized fit-to-purpose manufacturing,
  4. increased (squeezed?) productivity

(refer https://itservicesdelivery.wordpress.com/2016/05/05/digital-manufacturing-through-industrie-4-0-2/)

 

The complexity in the Digital Manufacturing space is predominantly, due to the fact, that manufacturing is shifting focus from pure play product philosophy to Product & Services philosophy. Hence, the challenge shifts to balancing maintenance with production.

 

Ambiguity:  

Haze in vision to the roadmap on how technologies can better your product or services can be a killer. You need to have a dynamic strategy which keeps refreshing its goals every 6 months to a year. 64% of the leadership time is being spent on articulating shared vision as per a CII-EY report.

 

Any organization unclear of the path it wants to tread to embrace technological advances to transform itself, will not be kindly treated by the market demands and especially in Manufacturing segment. In fact, the Industry 4.0 is exactly about that. 27% of the so-called $19 Trillion Digital economy is due to the manufacturing sector.  Hence in this ambiguity (though not a choice anymore), crafting out leadership opportunities can be indeed be an opportunity.

 

 

Manufacturers, with so much at stake, simply can chose either to run the race or to become legacy as they are challenged every day to the field by new and modern entrepreneurs who are coming up with some very interesting and disruptive innovations continuously shifting the co-ordinates to newer business parameters. The VUCA in DM is all of that – to be strategized and attacked in a truly multi-pronged approach.

 

VUCA in the Digital world!!

VUCA in the Digital world!!

By Sairam Bollapragada & Rajesh Mohandas

Across the globe, all are now connected in unprecedented ways. This is both a boon and a bane, where we live in an era that is transforming and setting stage for the next revolution. Times when we were disconnected and every country operated in silo the challenges were limited to the internal affairs and the near border conflicts only.

With technological advances where today we look at a bright and secured future on one hand, on the other hand the unrest continues and is growing bigger day by day, conflicts, civil unrest, terrorism, ransom ware, cyber crimes, etc… are now integrated into our daily life.

The digital reality is shaking up some of the beliefs and compelling us to move to a more knowledgeable IT economy what with automation and AI which were limited to books, have finally come to the open challenging how that can transform every space of the life. Soon all white-space is expected to be filled with cognitive behavior and techniques. Automation is forcing re-wiring of skills for many of the IT workforce (read : https://itservicesdelivery.wordpress.com/2016/04/11/the-digital-era-learner-re-wiring-your-skills/ ) spelling end of the careers if not done.

Hence one can relate to the 4 key parameters of VUCA : Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity. Each of these factors are challenging the order of the day stuff and hence the need to cope with the same in the turbulent times.

The compounded problem statement with external influencing factors from market pressures, competition, shareholder expectations, stakeholders, are strong indicators, to the fact that the leaders will need to be hard wired to resilience.

The role of the leaders managing workforce, will be crucial and critical in shaping the digital future of any organization.  Most of the requirements to support a digital environment are not about the technology per se, but it is also about creating the environment to re-skill, create flexibility to be agile, adopt to changing demands, and groom the right talent for a safe digital future.

Let’s take each of the parameter at a time to see what it means in Digital world:

(V) Volatility: The nature and Dynamics of change that is blowing across the landscape mandates catalysts to adopt to these changes. The legacy of efficiency and productivity will no longer continued business anymore. Disruptive innovations are indeed unsettling dominant industries in today’s world. Hence the times call for compulsive innovation and a drift away from SOPs.

U (Uncertainity): This is a factor which reflects the lack of predictability and many surprises. Another indicator of this is the refusal of the current technology wave to move easily beyond the labs. The ever-experimenting mind-set is also reflecting that the solutions themselves are prone to obsolescence, from the very moment they are conceived with high degree of unpredictability.

( C)Complexity:  Multiple parameters built into the character of the issue spells complexity – be it chaos or confusion-led issues.

Complexity can also reflect multiple influencing factors which can unsettle easily. Complexity is good or bad depending on your strategy. Having a bullet proof strategy is impossible – nevertheless one should have a solid strategy to counter complexities and challenge the same.  Even if it comes with short expiry date (2 years) you should have one.

Digital space is getting more and more complex with each passing day rolling out a new platform, new innovations coming to light, new solutions offered, disruptive models coming to life, etc. Hence to deal with all these changes, a strategy for managing this change is mandatory and thus the

(A)Ambiguity : The fact that we only know 40% of how technology will fold into the lives and markets as an influencer, is a true reflection of haze in the Digital space. This then raises the question of business risk, which is quite a reality today.

At various levels of an organization, there are ambiguities relating to progression and growth, whether at organization level or career levels of professionals.  Except for the lexical meaning of the Strategic and Tactical approaches, the lines are thinning out.

Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity will continue to exist but what leaders today can do is to play a vital role and attempt to control the levers by moving in to a Hyperawareness zone of informed decision-making, and fast execution. Winning in the Digital Vortex is not just about algorithms, architectures or innovative business models; it requires organizational change and workforce transformation. And successful transformation is enabled by a company’s digital business agility, building on the fact that people are an organization’s most important asset. Hence, everybody is but compelled to think on the forward thinking strategies to adopt to the Digital VUCA scenarios….

The Need for Intelligent Command Control Center for Robots (IC3R)

By Sairam Bollapragada & Rajesh Mohandas

It is predicted that the industry economy whether IT or non-IT, will go full throttle in the upcoming FY 2017-18 to create a financial realization called autonomics – unlocking the potentials  of robots that are being conceived. Over 2.5 billion people have at least one messaging app installed, within a couple of years that will reach 3.6 billion, about half of humanity. (Source: The Economist) However, the outcomes as suggested by many big market research houses have not been up to the desired expectations. With the things heating up around automation and artificial intelligence/RPA, we can foresee that we will be very soon seeing an increasing need to have some solid controls in place.

The Industry economy in the coming days will create a financial realisation called autonomics – unlocking the potentials of robots that are being conceived and driven towards this direction. However, the outcomes as suggested by many big market research houses have not been up to the desired expectations. With the things heating up around automation and artificial intelligence/RPA we can foresee that we will be very soon seeing an increasing need to have some solid controls in place. Today, the market is focused on Industrial Networks, Industrial Robots, Machine Vision, Control Valves/Devices, Field Instruments, Enclosures and Cables.  Each of these components have an IT and a Non-IT element with technology landscape consisting of SCADA, PLC (Programmable Logic Controllers), PAC (Programmable Automation Controllers), RTU(Remote Terminal Units), DCS (Distributed Control Systems), MES (Manufacturing Execution System), PLM (Product Lifecycle Management), HMI(Human Machine Interface), and above all Safety.

While creating new technical solutions every day and getting excited with it, we are probably too casual on the flip side of the consequences. Lets focus on the negatives for a moment – what if an unmanned vehicle had a bad bug? or what if the programming in the automated manufacturing plants were intercepted/hacked altering the desired behavior or leading to disturbing outcomes?, it can become a nightmare!! For example a recent crash involving Uber Technologies Inc. driverless car suggests autonomous software sometimes takes the same risks as the humans it may one day replace. While we are creating bots at an unprecedented speed and passion, we may also need to secure these advancements through a control mechanism, which will help us to have the desired outcomes, intact. The technological singularity will compel us to start thinking on automatic recovery with deep machine learning capacity.

Hence, are we talking about having a Command Control Mechanism to protect the desired outcomes of all the automated bots whether Soft or hard? The answer is yes. We need to soon develop and establish command control centres for a set of digital work force you want to monitor on a continuous basis to ensure they are aligned to the expected behavior patterns. In fact, there should be a proper set of guidelines issued by the state agencies before allowing any robot to go commercial in the market. The audit and strictures will help control the release of un-certified or Rogue robots. This would be especially true with the craze of smart cities catching up like around the globe. The creation of the digital twin space is also something that must be looked into seriously for potential disruption.

A command control center will help in creating a centralized monitoring service which will track monitor and report the behavior of these bots while positively looking at it, it could also lend performance improvements towards the desired outcomes. What with the introduction of aggressive mind-control technology and Drones we should have a proper access control on this technology based robots. A C3 with an end-to-end visibility across robots with real-time rolling view to help us have a central control of work schedules, job cards, execution, and support for various robotic activities

While the support for high availability/disaster recovery and network load balancing is the intent, the central control mechanism, will be mandated to have a cyber-cop kind of functionality. For example, while monitoring the bunch of UV Cars, suppose an unmanned vehicle on road was malfunctioning, one should have the ability(or create one) to monitor it in real time and stop the functioning of the engine remotely to avoid any major disaster.

A secure central monitoring system laced with analytics, could be enabled through the log base where robots pass on every information pertaining to each activity they are instructed to perform. With this much of an information being logged, one can get a deep insight into the business and the activity patterns being conducted by or through robots. With so much of information at our disposal one can really create a very good analytics use case to understand and comprehend the behavior of these robots as they are unleashed into the market.

The global industrial automation market is extremely fragmented due to the presence of several players in the global market. Some of the leading players operating in the global market are ABB Ltd., FANUC Corporation, Honeywell International Inc., Toshiba Machine Corporation Ltd., Yokogawa Electric Corporation, Emerson Electric Company, General Electric Company, Yaskawa Electric Corporation, Rockwell Automation, Inc., Mitsubishi Electric Corporation, and Voith GmbH.

However, while doing a cherry pick of the best of the lot or robots to make their organizations more productive and efficient, we hope that the focus will begin from creating a solid Intelligent Command Control Center upfront to monitor, maintain, track and continuously do course correction for these disparate bots – soft and hard alike. The industrial control and factory automation is projected to reach USD 153.30 Billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 4.88% during the forecast period and hence the emphasis. The state agencies must work towards evolving policy guidelines within and beyond for all entities looking to employ the automation-Digital bots effectively.

IoT Security is everybody’s business!! – Part 1

By Sairam Bollapragada

With the Digital wave, the structure of the IT organizations, especially those racing to embrace new technologies and IoT is poised for a paradigm shift. Every brilliant side of technological revolution comes with a darker patch as well. With so much of data slated to being generated via connected devices, the Cyber Security can no longer be the forte of IT folks ONLY.

While technology brings in convenience, it also comes at a cost (read flip side).

In the recent past in India, we have started seeing mobile wallets increasingly being used for payments and other financial transactions to another device or account. The connected wallets also create opportunities for hackers to break in and creatively lay their hands on the information pertaining to transactions, account details, the payee details, their numbers, the payment patterns, sources of funds, and many such confidential data which one would not like to divulge.

Cyber security, will don a new hat with the advent of new technology and devices working in tandem. Trying to stop break-ins will need a lot more intelligence and smart techniques to be devised. The provisioning of security to these mushrooming applications and connected devises will need to be really understood well so that people know they are secure while transacting with gates to personal data. The approach itself requires comprehensive techniques.

The mobile channels will provision more incentives with increase in volumes of both devices and transactions. The global reach of the mobiles have opened standard techniques for the hackers across the global hacking communities. Ubiquity and connectivity are vulnerable and enables folks to get to mobile devices. The incentives are more for mobiles which use financial transactions, undoubtedly. It may not be hard for hackers to know which user uses which number to carry out financial transactions.

The richer the features of the mobile, the more it becomes a target for the hackers.  The concern about the privacy invasion by advertisers is rising steeply with these smarter devices. In 2010-11 Wall Street conducted a test for 101 Android/iOS applications and found that more than half sent device information, 47 shared location data, and 5% users –  personal information to advertisers without the consent of the users.

More than 1000 malware target mobile devices globally. An instance of worm attack can infect mobiles rapidly to the tune of millions of handsets.  As mobiles are getting more advanced so are the worms accomplishing more sophistication – raising their quality of attack as well.  As technology carriers are improving the device capability, the blue-tooth and Wi-Fi is also becoming airborne contaminators. Some viruses dial international numbers while the subscriber is sleeping.

The mobile computing increases the data loss as well. With the connected devices expected to transmit data across applications and other devices, the hackers would try means and ways to create opportunities in the chaos. Mobile banking has also brought in rogue applications which are smartly working their way to gather financial information from devices through even legitimate applications topped with these malware at app stores.

Over all this, it is said that more than 37% of the service providers do not have any threat intelligence programs.

Impacting Scenarios

As hackers take control of the connected devices, the very capability for which the IoT was brought in (efficiency, productivity, ease, etc) will be compromised.  It is scary to even think what if the folks are unable to stop machines, controlled by connected devices for convenience- large ones at that. IT security itself will not stand ground here.  The extended knowledge across applied industrial controls and production processes would become mandatory to put the checks and balances in place. (What if one is not able to stop a blast furnace in steel plants?…)

Water Management:  Anything which is scarce and essential comes under the cloud of threat and catches attention for disruptive opportunities. Water management through connected devices is becoming a lucrative offering from many vendors ensuring appropriate water quality, controlled water supply, water treatment, metering and other features. Water consumption, like electricity is also vulnerable where automatic vaults and control mechanisms for pressure and flow are devised to be controlled through technology. A loss of control would create wastage of water across and lead to a water crisis.

Patients Health Records (PHR)

The PHRs of patients are too personal a data to be privy to. These personal health records reveal several confidential parameters of personal health profile of an individual with historic ailments, health issues in the recent past, blood group info, and many more data which can lead to people either playing with or destroying the data for obvious reasons or holding the same for ransom. Very dangerous but true, not because we need to be scared, but the awareness of such a threat is missing till the first casualty occurs.

The Nuclear plants, used for positive reasons, like generating power can be a huge source of risk – if they were to lose hold over the control process of nuclear reactors.  If IoT based controllers were deployed in these plants for the purpose of analytics and other accompanying research advantages, there should be exhaustive sets of checks and audits built in – plus multiple approvals at multiple governance decision points to ensure disasters would be at least minimized.

Likewise, hacking connected or smart cars can lead to road disasters.  This includes the hacking of smart traffic management – feature of smart cities. Insurance transactions can be blocked and claims disabled or diverted, where insurance segments are moving from statistics to individual fact-based policies.

Cloud is another source of vulnerability. The plethora of data being stored on cloud will require tighter secured solutions, and hence the cloud data security will only become more crucial.

It is said that M2M communications will themselves generate about $900 billion in revenues by 2020.

Dependency on the connected devices for various aspects of the futuristic work-style like improved real-time decision making, better design of solutions, reliability on the so-generated data analytics (what about data quality?), driving future product conceptualization, fleet management,  and many others could be a challenge if the systems malfunction due to malware or cyber-attacks.

The above are potential scenarios where the flip side of technology, if misused, can create disasters and can cause unimaginable disruption. However, it is not too late to create a strategic security blueprint and get the awareness levels in the public embracing these newer emerging solutions in future.

We will discuss the potential next steps on what we should do, what the state agencies should do and what the general users should know in the sequel to this blog shortly. Till then happy reading….